WTNT45 KNHC 030256 RRA

TCDAT5



TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016

1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016



DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING

EARL SEVERAL HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD

FALLEN TO 996 MB OR EVEN LOWER.  THEREFORE THE INTENSITY WAS

INCREASED TO 50 KT.  SOME HIGHER SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WERE REPORTED

FROM THE AIRCRAFT'S SFMR INSTRUMENT, BUT THESE ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE

BEEN RAIN-INFLATED. THE STORM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER

ORGANIZED, WITH SOME DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURES SEEN ON SATELLITE

IMAGES. WITH LOW SHEAR AND SSTS APPROACHING 30 C ALONG THE PROJECTED

TRACK, ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND THE NHC FORECAST CALLS

FOR EARL TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THIS IS IN CLOSE

AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE AND ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE

THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CYCLONE MAKES

LANDFALL OVER YUCATAN, AND THE AMOUNT OF RESTRENGTHENING IN 2-3

DAYS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR EARL MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN BAY

OF CAMPECHE.



BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE CENTER FIXES, THE INITIAL MOTION IS

ESTIMATED TO BE 280/14 KT.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS

ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.  A LARGE

AND NEARLY STATIONARY MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM

CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS SHOULD PREVENT THE TROPICAL

CYCLONE FROM MOVING SIGNIFICANTLY NORTHWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST

TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND IS

A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS THEREAFTER, WITH THE FORMER

MODEL'S TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE LATTER ONE.  THIS IS FAIRLY=