WTNT45 KNHC 040854 RRA

TCDAT5



HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016

400 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016



THE CENTER OF EARL MADE LANDFALL JUST SOUTHWEST OF BELIZE CITY,

BELIZE NEAR 0600 UTC.  THE LAST REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INCLUDED A 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 85

KT, SFMR AND DROPSONDE WINDS NEAR 65 KT, AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL

PRESSURE NEAR 979 MB.  BASED ON THESE DATA, THE LANDFALL INTENSITY

IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE BEEN 70 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS

ADVISORY IS REDUCED TO 65 KT AS EARL IS NOW WEAKENING OVER LAND.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13.  A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH

OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD STEER IT GENERALLY WESTWARD TO

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO.  THERE IS SOME

SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE THAT IS SIGNIFICANT FOR THE CHANCES OF

THE SYSTEM EMERGING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  THE ECMWF AND THE

GFS SHOW A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION, WHICH WOULD BRING THE CENTER OVER

WATER.  THE UKMET SHOWS A MORE WESTWARD MOTION, WHICH WOULD KEEP THE

CENTER OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SOUTH OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  THE

NEW FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF IN HAVING THE

CENTER TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS.

OVERALL, THE NEW TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THAT LIES

NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.



EARL SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO, AND IT

IS EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE TIME THE CENTER

REACHES THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SPEND LESS

THAN 12 HOURS OVER WATER, SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS NO=