WTPA44 PHFO 080844 RRA

TCDCP4



TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP102016

1100 PM HST SUN AUG 07 2016



TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVETTE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AS IT ENTERS

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, WITH ALL THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED

WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER

(LLCC). DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND PHFO BOTH

SHOW 2.0/30 KT, AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE IS 1.8/28 KT.

A RECENT 08/0645Z ASCAT PASS SAMPLED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE

SYSTEM, SHOWING SOME 30 KT WIND BARBS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE

LLCC. AS A RESULT, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL BE

MAINTAINED AT 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION BASED ON A COMBINATION OF

VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE LOOPS OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS HAS

BEEN SET AT 270/08 KT.



IVETTE IS BECOMING AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM DUE TO PERSISTENT

SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20-30 KT, AS DIAGNOSED BY

SHIPS AND THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT. AS A RESULT, THE DEPRESSION IS

EXPECTED TO LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW AS IT

TRACKS OFF TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS. THE CPHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF

THE GUIDANCE, AND HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS

FORECAST.



THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR

27C DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WHILE CONTINUING TO EXPERIENCE

VERY UNFAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. WHILE INTERMITTENT DEEP

CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO FLARE UP WELL TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST

OF THE LLCC, IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT IVETTE WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN=