WTPZ45 KNHC 030255 RRA

TCDEP5



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016

800 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016



THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS

SHOWING SOME LIMITED BANDING FEATURES IN COMBINATION WITH A

DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATION NUMBERS

ARE GRADUALLY RISING, THOUGH A BLEND OF TAFB, SAB, AND CIMSS-ADT

VALUES STILL INDICATES AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 30 KT.



A 1941Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF THE

SYSTEM WAS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER INDICATED.

EXTRAPOLATING FORWARD IN TIME FROM THAT POINT SUGGESTS A CENTER

THAT IS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, PERHAPS

REFLECTING THE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ASSESSED AT A FAST 17 KT TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST, PRIMARILY DUE TO THE STEERING OF AN EAST-WEST

EXTENDED DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THE TIGHTLY PACKED TRACK

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER RATE

OF FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST

IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE NEXT DAY DUE TO

THE MORE NORTHERLY INITIAL MOTION, AND THEN NEARLY THE SAME OUT

THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GLOBAL

AND HWRF MODEL CONSENSUS.



THE SYSTEM SHOULD ONLY GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT

DAY OR SO BECAUSE OF THE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND AS THE

SYSTEM DEVELOPS AN INNER CORE STRUCTURE.  A MORE STEADY

STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED OUT TO ABOUT DAY THREE AS THE SHEAR

RELAXES AND THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER 28C WATER AND THROUGH A VERY=