WTPZ45 KNHC 030859 RRA

TCDEP5



TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016

200 AM PDT WED AUG 03 2016



THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS GRADUALLY IMPROVED

SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, WITH AN INCREASE IN BANDING OVER THE

WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW

THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE

CONVECTIVE BAND DUE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, BUT A NEW

BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS VERY RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE

ESTIMATE CENTER LOCATION.  ALTHOUGH EARLIER ASCAT DATA SHOWED

MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 30 KT, THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION

AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT INCREASING THE

INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KT.  IVETTE BECOMES THE NINTH TROPICAL STORM

TO FORM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN SINCE JULY 2ND.



IVETTE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AN ATYPICALLY FAST SPEED OF 17 KT.

A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD KEEP

IT MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL

DAYS, WITH THE FORWARD SPEED GRADUALLY DECREASING AS IT NEARS THE

WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  BY LATE IN THE PERIOD, IVETTE SHOULD

TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATE FURTHER AS A BREAK IN THE

RIDGE DEVELOPS BETWEEN 140W AND 150W.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK IS

SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, BUT HAS BEEN NUDGED SOUTHWARD TO

BE CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.



THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST

TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW

STRENGTHENING WHILE IVETTE MOVES OVER WARM WATER AND REMAINS

IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE=