WTPZ41 KNHC 080852 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016

300 AM MDT MON AUG 08 2016



THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE CONVECTIVE BANDING STRUCTURE THAT WAS NOTED

DURING THE EVENING HAS BECOME LESS APPARENT, BUT A NEW BURST OF

CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  A

COUPLE OF ASCAT OVERPASSES BETWEEN 0400 AND 0500 UTC INDICATED THAT

THE CENTER IS LOCATED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS

ESTIMATES, AND IT MAY BE NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE NEW

CONVECTIVE MASS, DUE TO SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  JAVIER'S INITIAL

WIND SPEED REMAINS 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, WHICH IS BASED ON

DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T3.0 AND THE ASCAT DATA WHICH SHOWED WINDS

TO AROUND 40 KT.



JAVIER WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM WATER AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED

TO DECREASE TODAY, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE

NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY LOWER

THAN BEFORE, SO THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE LESS STRENGTHENING

THAN EARLIER.  ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATED IN THE NHC

FORECAST, JAVIER COULD BECOME A HURRICANE WHEN IT IS NEAR THE

SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  IN A DAY OR

SO, DECREASING SSTS, LAND INTERACTION, AND A MORE STABLE

AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING.



THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT.  THE

TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME FROM THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY.  JAVIER SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME

REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED WHILE IT IS STEERED AROUND THE=