WTNT41 KNHC 182037 RRA

TCDAT1



TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016

500 PM AST THU AUG 18 2016



AFTER A BRIEF CONVECTIVE HIATUS, DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS OF

-70C TO -75C HAS REDEVELOPED INTO A SMALL CDO FEATURE DIRECTLY

OVER THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SATELLITE

CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T3.0/45 KT AND T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB,

RESPECTIVELY, AND UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES HAVE DECREASED TO T3.0/45 KT.

A BLEND OF THESE VALUES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.



FIONA IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, OR 300/09 KT.

OTHER THAN MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE

DUE TO INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE RE-ORGANIZATION LIKE THE

MOST RECENT EPISODE, THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN

STRONG AGREEMENT ON FIONA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD

TOWARD A BREAK IN THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH FOR THE NEXT 120 HOURS.

GIVEN THE TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL GUIDANCE ABOUT THE PREVIOUS FEW

FORECAST TRACKS, THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF

THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND LIES CLOSE TO BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN

THE CONSENSUS MODEL, TVCN.



THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST OR

RATIONALE. DESPITE THE EARLIER SHARP DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION,

THE INNER-CORE WIND FIELD OF THE COMPACT CYCLONE HAS REMAINED QUITE

ROBUST BASED ON THE LACK OF NO ARC CLOUD LINES OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES

SEEN EMANATING OUTWARD FROM THE CENTER IN VISIBLE SATELLITE TODAY.

AS RESULT, FIONA SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN

THE SHORT TERM AND STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.=