WTPZ42 KNHC 192033 RRA

TCDEP2



TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016

300 PM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016



THIS AFTERNOON'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION SHOWS THAT KAY'S CLOUD

PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  IT APPEARS

AS THOUGH THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, WHICH HAS BEEN HAMPERING

DEVELOPMENT, HAS DIMINISHED SOME.  GROWTH OF THE SPIRAL BANDS WITH

COLDER CLOUD TOPS OF -75C IS THE MOST EVIDENT, PARTICULARLY, IN THE

WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION.  THERE HAS BEEN

SUBSEQUENT IMPROVEMENT OF THE INNER CORE, INDICATIVE OF A SMALL,

IRREGULAR CDO FEATURE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT

BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE TAFB AND SAB SATELLITE INTENSITY

ESTIMATES AND RECENT ASCAT-A AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER OVERPASSES.

SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  AFTER

THAT TIME, THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES

INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIRMASS.  KAY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO

TRAVERSE COOLER OCEANIC TEMPERATURES AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING

EASTERLY SHEAR DURING THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN BASED ON THE IVCN CONSENSUS AND SHOWS KAY

DECAYING INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 4 DAYS.



THE SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS WAS QUITE ACCOMMODATING TODAY WITH THE

INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS OVER THE PASS

FEW HOURS HAVE APPARENTLY CAUSED THE CIRCULATION CENTER TO REFORM

ABOUT 40 NMI SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY LOCATION.  DESPITE THIS

CENTER RELOCATION, KAY IS STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 310/6 KT,

AND SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS FORWARD MOTION THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR=