WTPZ42 KNHC 201450 RRA

TCDEP2



TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016

900 AM MDT SAT AUG 20 2016



A RECENT GPM OVERPASS INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF KAY

REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA, WITH A

MID-LEVEL EYE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.

VARIOUS SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE

IN THE 45-50 KT RANGE.  BASED ON THESE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY

REMAINS 45 KT, AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.



THE GPM DATA AND OTHER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW THAT KAY HAS MOVED

MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN INITIAL MOTION

OF 345/5.  THIS REQUIRES A RE-LOCATION OF THE CENTER ON THIS

ADVISORY.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A

MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KAY SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD

THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.  AFTER

THAT TIME, A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY AS KAY BECOMES A SHALLOW

LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES.  THE

NEW FORECAST TRACK, WHICH LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY-

CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, IS PARALLEL TO BUT NORTH OF THE

PREVIOUS TRACK BASED PRIMARILY ON THE INITIAL POSITION.



ON THE FORECAST TRACK, KAY WILL BE MOVING OVER DECREASING SEA

SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND REACHING THE 26C ISOTHERM BETWEEN 48-72

HOURS.  ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE

BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES COLD WATER, NONE OF THE INTENSITY

GUIDANCE MODELS ARE FORECASTING SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.  THUS,

THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS

ONE IN SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS,=