WTPZ42 KNHC 212033 RRA

TCDEP2



TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016

200 PM PDT SUN AUG 21 2016



KAY'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE ITS OVERNIGHT

CONVECTIVE BURST.  A SMALL AND QUASI-CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST

HAS FORMED, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED NEARLY IN THE MIDDLE

OF THIS CONVECTIVE MASS.  AN EARLIER SSMI/S PASS ALSO SHOWED THE

PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL CONVECTIVE RING, INDICATIVE OF AN INCREASE

IN THE SYSTEM'S ORGANIZATION.  A 1658 ASCAT PASS INDICATED WIND

SPEEDS AROUND 45 KT, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET TO

THIS VALUE.



TODAY'S INTENSIFICATION EPISODE HAS LIKELY ENDED.  HOWEVER, WITH THE

CYCLONE STILL OVER RELATIVELY WATERS AND IN A REASONABLY MOIST AND

LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, KAY SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH FOR THE

NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.  BY 24 HOURS, THE STORM SHOULD REACH

SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS, AND ENCOUNTER CONSIDERABLY LESS

CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS.  WEAKENING SHOULD

COMMENCE BY THAT TIME, WITH A RAPID DECAY LIKELY IN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

REMNANT LOW STATUS IS STILL INDICATED IN 2 DAYS, WITH DISSIPATION

LIKELY IN 3 DAYS IN AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODELS.  THE NHC INTENSITY

FORECAST IS LARGELY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE, EXCEPT IN THE VERY

SHORT TERM WHERE IT IS A BIT HIGHER DUE TO THE CYCLONE'S RECENT

INTENSIFICATION.



KAY CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, WITH THE LATEST

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 300/07.  KAY IS BEING STEERED ON THIS

COURSE BY THE FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL

ANTICYCLONE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO.  A TURN TOWARD=