WTNT42 KNHC 260245 RRA

TCDAT2



TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  14

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016

1100 PM AST THU AUG 25 2016



GASTON CONTINUES TO HAVE AN ASYMMETRIC SATELLITE APPEARANCE DUE TO

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  STILL, THE CYCLONE IS PRODUCING

PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER, AND DVORAK ESTIMATES

SUGGEST THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS NEAR 55 KT.  THE SHEAR

SHOULD DECREASE TOMORROW DUE TO GASTON MOVING INTO A FAVORABLE

POSITION TO THE NORTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  IN ADDITION, THE

WATER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE WARMING UP DURING THE NEXT

FEW DAYS, WHICH SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE STRENGTHENING.  DUE TO RECENT

MICROWAVE DATA SHOWING THAT THE INNER CORE HAS BEEN DISRUPTED, ONLY

A SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN IN THIS FORECAST.  IN THE LONGER

TERM, MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND

PATTERN, AND I HAVE ELECTED TO LEVEL OFF THE INTENSIFICATION.  THE

NEW NHC PREDICTION IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE MODEL

CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT, WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN

BELOW, A MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW GASTON BECOMING A MAJOR

HURRICANE AT SOME TIME IN THE DAY 3 TO 5 PERIOD.



THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KT.  GASTON SHOULD

MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AROUND A MID-LEVEL

RIDGE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  IN ABOUT 36 HOURS, THE

RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF GASTON, WHICH WILL LIKELY

CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  EARLY NEXT WEEK,

GASTON SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS, THEN RECURVE INTO

THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IN 4 DAYS OR SO.  MODEL GUIDANCE,=