WTNT42 KNHC 290250 RRA

TCDAT2



HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  26

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016

1100 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2016



GASTON REMAINS A WELL ORGANIZED HURRICANE. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE

THAT THE EYE REMAINS QUITE DISTINCT WITH A SYMMETRIC RING OF DEEP

CONVECTION AROUND IT.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED

BOTH TO THE WEST AND THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST DVORAK

CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 5.5/102 KT, AND AUTOMATED

VALUES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE 5.9/112 KT.

BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 105

KT.



GASTON HAS NOT MOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. A

CONTINUED SLOW AND LIKELY ERRATIC NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST

OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE GASTON REMAINS IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS

CAUSED BY A BLOCKING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST.  A TROUGH

THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN BY THE

TIME IT NEARS GASTON, BUT IT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ERODE THE

RIDGE AND ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE

WESTERLIES. THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD RESULT IN GASTON'S TURNING

EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN ABOUT 24 HOURS, WITH THE CYCLONE CONTINUING IN

THAT DIRECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED, AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO

THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK PREDICTION.



THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT GASTON COULD MAINTAIN ITS

STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE EXPECTED SLOW

MOTION OF THE CYCLONE THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT COLD WATER UPWELLING

WOULD COUNTERACT THAT.  BEYOND THAT TIME, THE HURRICANE IS=