WTPA41 PHFO 020254 RRA

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HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  34

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016

500 PM HST THU SEP 01 2016



LESTER RAPIDLY RE-INTENSIFIED TO A MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY AS DEEP

CONVECTION STRENGTHENED AROUND A WELL DEFINED EYE. LESTER HAS BEEN

MOVING OVER AN AREA OF WARMER SSTS, AND MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN ENHANCING OUTFLOW TO THE

WEST AND NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES

ARE UP, AS ALL FIX AGENCIES CAME IN WITH 6.0/115 KT. GIVEN HOW THERE

HAS ONLY BEEN A SMALL WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE CENTER

SINCE THE FIX TIME, THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE RAISED TO 110 KT.

U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE CONDUCTING A MISSION

IN LESTER DURING THE EVENING, WHILE AN NCAR G-V AIRCRAFT IS

COMPLETING A MISSION TO SAMPLE THE ENVIRONMENT TO THE NORTH OF

LESTER.



LESTER HAS BEGUN ITS MUCH ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST, AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT 285/12 KT. LESTER

IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE AND

IS COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITTING OVER

HAWAII. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE

THAT IS CAUSING LESTER TO MOVE ON THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. A

SIMILAR GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH A

TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND BEYOND. THOUGH THE

OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PRIOR ADVISORY, THE TRACK HAS

BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AND ONWARD, AND IT

REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE TVCN AND THE OPERATIONAL GFS, WHILE THE

ECMWF PROJECTED TRACK REMAINS TO THE NORTH. A HURRICANE WATCH=