WTPA41 PHFO 021503 RRA

TCDCP1



HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  36

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016

500 AM HST FRI SEP 02 2016



LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT LESTER REMAINS A STRONG AND WELL-

ORGANIZED HURRICANE, WITH A SOLID RING OF COLD CLOUD TOPS

SURROUNDING THE EYE. HOWEVER, THE EYE HAS BEEN SHRINKING, AND EYE

TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED SOMEWHAT SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY,

WHILE THE OUTFLOW HAS DIMINISHED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THESE

OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT LESTER HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT.

SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM HFO/SAB/GTW

RANGED FROM 5.5/102 KT TO 6.0/115 KT, WHILE UW-CIMSS ADT YIELDED

5.3/97 KT. AS LESTER APPEARS WEAKER SINCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT

LAST DETERMINED THE INTENSITY WAS NEAR 100 KT, THE CURRENT INTENSITY

FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SET TO 95 KT. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT

INTO LESTER IS PLANNED FOR LATER THIS MORNING, WHILE THE G-V WILL

CONDUCT ONE MORE SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION LATER TODAY BEFORE

HEADING BACK TO THE MAINLAND.



THE INITIAL MOTION VECTOR FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 295/12 KT, AND

LESTER HAS BEEN TRACKING TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK

OVERNIGHT. LESTER IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON

THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A LOW-TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE

OF DAYS. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AT THE END OF THE

FORECAST IS EXPECTED AS LESTER NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN

PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. ON DAY 5, LESTER WILL BE CLOSE TO A MID-

LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WHILE THE SPREAD IN THE

GUIDANCE SUITE INCREASES AT THAT TIME, THE EARLIER PERIODS OF THE=