WTPA41 PHFO 031456 RRA

TCDCP1



HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  40

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016

500 AM HST SAT SEP 03 2016



LESTER IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY SOUTHWESTERLY

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE ANIMATIONS, MAKING THE

LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DIFFICULT TO FIND. THANKFULLY,

THE U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SAMPLED THE SYSTEM

THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT, AND WAS VERY HELPFUL IN FINDING THE LLCC

OF LESTER. THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND MULTIPLE AREAS WITH SFMR

WINDS OF 80+ KNOTS WHEN FLYING THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, A 96 KNOT

FLIGHT LEVEL WIND WHICH REDUCES TO 86 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE WAS

FOUND AT 03/0925Z. THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 85

KNOTS FOR THE 15Z ADVISORY. THIS AGREES WELL WITH A BLEND OF THE

DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM PHFO, SAB AND JTWC, WHICH RANGED FROM

4.5/77 KNOTS TO 5.0/90 KNOTS. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS

SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM LATER THIS MORNING.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 KNOTS. THIS

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS LESTER CONTINUES TO BE

STEERED BY A DEEP LAYERED RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 160W. LESTER WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE

SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE TONIGHT, WHILE AN

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES MIDWAY ATOLL. AS A RESULT, LESTER

SHOULD CHANGE COURSE TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS,

THEN MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH 120 HOURS IN

BETWEEN THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH

MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL CPHC TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO=