WTPA41 PHFO 040249 RRA

TCDCP1



HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  42

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016

500 PM HST SAT SEP 03 2016



SHEAR CONTINUES TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON LESTER'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION

THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC BRIEFLY

BECOMING EXPOSED AROUND 0000 UTC. DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS

THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH WARMER CONVECTIVE TOPS NOTED IN THE -

58 TO -65 DEGREES CELSIUS RANGE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE

INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 3.5/55 KT FROM SAB, TO 4.0/65 KT FROM

PHFO TO 4.5/77 KT FROM JTWC. U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT

FINISHED THEIR LAST MISSION THIS MORNING, SO WE WILL ASSIGN LESTER

AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK

ESTIMATES AND THE OVERALL DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE.



INITIAL MOTION IS UNCHANGED AT 295/15 KT. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS

TIGHTLY PACKED, TAKING LESTER ALONG A RECURVING PATH GENERALLY

NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH DAY 2, FOLLOWED BY A TURN NORTHWARD ON DAY 3,

THEN NORTHEASTWARD ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF

30N PROVIDES MOST OF THE STEERING NEEDED TO KEEP LESTER MOVING WEST

NORTHWESTWARD, WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN

ISLANDS ALLOWS THIS SYSTEM TO SLIP NORTHWARD. THIS UPPER TROUGH

MERGES WITH A LARGER LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE DATELINE BY THE

END OF DAY 2, SUBJECTING LESTER TO THE STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST

STEERING NEEDED FOR RECURVATURE. THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS

THE LAST ONE ALONG THE TVCN CONSENSUS PATH. THE OCEAN PREDICTION

CENTER COORDINATED WITH POSITIONS AND INTENSITIES ON DAYS 4 AND 5,

WHEN LESTER IS EXPECTED TO HAVE COMPLETED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.=