WTPA41 PHFO 040918 CCA

TCDCP1



TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  43...corrected

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016

1100 PM HST SAT SEP 03 2016



Lester is nearly devoid of deep convection this evening due to

the hostile impacts of strong environmental vertical wind shear.

The most recent subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates

range from 3.0/45 kt from SAB to 3.5/55 kt from PHFO and JTWC. The

latest CIMSS ADT estimate is 2.9/43 kt. Based on the degraded

appearance of Lester in satellite imagery and these intensity

estimates, we have downgraded Lester to a 55 kt Tropical Storm.



The initial motion for this advisory is 295/13 kt. As with previous

runs, the latest track guidance remains tightly clustered, taking

Lester along a northwestward path through day 2, followed by

gradual slowing and a northward turn on day 3. Lester is then

then steered northeastward on days 4 and 5. Lester is currently

being steered by the subtropical ridge north of latitude 30N.

However, a weakness in this ridge due to an upper level trough

northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands will cause the tropical

cyclone to move northwestward and then northward. The latest

forecast track closely follows the previous one, except for slight

nudging to the TVCN and GFEX consensus guidance. The Ocean

Prediction Center coordinated the 4 and 5 day positions.



All intensity guidance shows Lester weakening through day 5 as this

system passes over cooler water and the current 15 to 20 kt of

southwesterly shear increases. Like the previous advisory, the

global models, notably GFS, keep Lester stronger through day 3 than

HWRF or GFDL. The forecast calls for Lester to weaken slowly

through day 2, followed by gradual weakening from days 3 through 5.

This closely follows the latest SHIPS and the IVCN consensus

guidance.



Large and dangerous surf is expected through early Sunday morning

across exposed shores in the main Hawaiian Islands. Refer to the

latest coastal hazard message (CFWHFO) from the National Weather

Service in Honolulu, HI for additional information.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  04/0900Z 23.3N 158.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

 12H  04/1800Z 24.7N 159.9W   50 KT  60 MPH

 24H  05/0600Z 26.9N 162.2W   50 KT  60 MPH

 36H  05/1800Z 29.1N 164.1W   50 KT  60 MPH

 48H  06/0600Z 31.0N 165.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

 72H  07/0600Z 36.0N 165.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

 96H  08/0600Z 44.5N 157.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  09/0600Z 49.5N 151.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP



$$

Forecaster Houston