WTPA41 PHFO 042053 RRA

TCDCP1



TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  45

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016

1100 AM HST SUN SEP 04 2016



DEEP CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN FORMED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER

OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE

INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 2.5/35 KT FROM SAB, 3.0/45 KT FROM

JTWC AND 3.5/55 KT FROM PHFO. BASED ON THE CURRENT APPEARANCE OF

LESTER IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, WE HAVE

KEPT THE INTENSITY AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 315/15 KT. THE LATEST TRACK

GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, TAKING LESTER ALONG A

NORTHWESTWARD PATH THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL

SLOWING AND A NORTHWARD TURN ON DAY 2. LESTER IS THEN THEN FORECAST

TO ACCELERATE TO NORTHEAST ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. LESTER IS CURRENTLY

BEING STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF LATITUDE 30N.

HOWEVER, A WEAKNESS IN THIS RIDGE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH

NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS CAUSING LESTER TO MOVE

NORTHWESTWARD. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE

PREVIOUS ONE, AND LIES CLOSE TO CONSENSUS AND RELIABLE MODEL

GUIDANCE. THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER COORDINATED THE 4 AND 5 DAY

POSITIONS.



STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE SYSTEM WITH SHIPS

GUIDANCE INDICATING 24 KT WHILE UW-CIMSS ESTIMATE IS 33 KT. ALL

INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY SLOW, BUT STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH DAY

5 AS LESTER PASSES OVER COOLER WATER AND STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR

CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST

INDICATES SLIGHT WEAKENING, FOLLOWED BY NEARLY STEADY STATE THROUGH=