WTPA41 PHFO 060839

TCDCP1



TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  51

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016

1100 PM HST MON SEP 05 2016



GOES-15 imagery shows Tropical Storm Lester with a partly exposed

low-level circulation center. The higher cloud tops are being

pushed off to the north side of the system. The subjective Dvorak

satellite intensity estimate from PHFO was 2.5/35 kt and from SAB

it was 1.5/25 kt. Dvorak intensity estimates have been erratic,

probably since the system is beginning to undergo extratropical

transition. We have held the initial intensity at 50 kt. Recent

SATCON estimates from CIMSS support the 50 kt intensity.



The initial motion is 350/10 kt. The cyclone lies between a trough

aloft centered from near 48N 175E to 25N 165E and a broad ridge

aloft centered from near 45N 150W to 30N 158W. A jet stream runs

from 30N 178W to 40N 171W to 47N 165W. Lester will be steered by the

flow between the trough and the ridge. The cyclone will continue

moving north at about the same speed for the next 12 hours. As the

trough aloft moves east at 10 to 15 kt, the steering flow over

Lester will shift out of the southwest and strengthen. Lester

will curve toward the north northeast through Tuesday night, then

accelerate toward the northeast on Wednesday. The latest forecast

track closely follows the previous one, and lies close to the global

models as well as the TVCN consensus guidance. The Ocean Prediction

Center provided input for the 36 through 72 hour positions.



Most of the intensity guidance indicates that the tropical cyclone

will remain near its current intensity through 48 hours, with slow

weakening beyond that. The latest intensity forecast follows along

with this, keeping the system at it present intensity through the

day on Wednesday. By Wednesday night Lester is forecast to

transition to an extratropical storm low. This intensity forecast

closely follows nearly all of the global models, as well as SHIPS

and IVCN consensus guidance.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  06/0900Z 32.2N 165.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

 12H  06/1800Z 33.6N 166.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

 24H  07/0600Z 35.5N 165.9W   50 KT  60 MPH

 36H  07/1800Z 38.5N 164.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

 48H  08/0600Z 42.5N 161.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  09/0600Z 51.0N 145.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Donaldson