WTPA41 PHFO 072057 RRA

TCDCP1



POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  57

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016

1100 AM HST WED SEP 07 2016



ALTHOUGH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING

SOUTHEAST OF LESTER'S EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER,

INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRAMATICALLY COLDER WATERS ALONG

THE FORECAST TRACK WILL PRECLUDE LESTER FROM REGAINING TROPICAL

CHARACTERISTICS. WHILE THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW MAY

TAKE ANOTHER 6 TO 12 HOURS TO COMPLETE, DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN

ABSENT OVER THE CENTER OF LESTER FOR SUFFICIENTLY LONG THAT THE

SYSTEM CAN SAFELY BE DEEMED POST-TROPICAL.



THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 025/22 KT. THE POST-TROPICAL

CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE

NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT BECOMES FURTHER EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP-

LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE

SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WILL PERSIST UNTIL

THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES, WHICH IS EXPECTED BY 36 HOURS, WHEN THE

SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF A LARGER

EXTRATROPICAL LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA.

ALTHOUGH LESTER IS NO LONGER DEEMED TO BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE,

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE,

AND SOME INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED AS LESTER TRANSITIONS

TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE UPDATED TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST

IS LARGELY BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER, WHICH

IS PRIMARILY BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS, ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS.



THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC=