WTPZ43 KNHC 271434 RRA

TCDEP3



HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  12

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016

800 AM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016



LESTER HAS BEEN SLOWLY STRENGTHENING.  SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY, THE

EYE HAS CLEARED OUT, WARMED AND BECOME BETTER DEFINED.  THE CYCLONE

HAS ALSO BEEN MAINTAINING A COMPACT AND FAIRLY SYMMETRIC CENTRAL

DENSE OVERCAST BUT WITH NO PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES.  SATELLITE

CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T4.5/77 KT AND T5.0/90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB,

RESPECTIVELY.  A BLEND OF THESE IS USED TO RAISE THE INITIAL

INTENSITY ESTIMATE TO 80 KT.



LESTER'S HEADING HAS BECOME MORE WESTERLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL

HOURS, AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/08.  A STRONG

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD HOLD SWAY TO THE NORTH OF LESTER FOR AT

LEASTTHE NEXT 3 DAYS, KEEPING THE CYCLONE ON A NEARLY DUE-WEST

COURSE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THIS TIME,

RESULTING IN A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. AFTER 72 HOURS, THE MODEL

SPREAD INCREASES, WITH THE GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS ON THE NORTHERN

SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE ECMWF TO THE SOUTH.  THE

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE RELATED TO THEIR HANDLING OF A

MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST, WHICH COULD

WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF LESTER.  THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A

STRONGER RIDGE AND THUS DEPICTS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK, WHILE THE

GFS-BASED GUIDANCE SHOWS LESTER GAINING MORE LATITUDE AS A RESULT OF

A WEAKER RIDGE.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FOREAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY

NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FROM 72-120 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO A

CONSENSUS OF THESE MODELS.



GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A NEARLY UNIFORM EASTERLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS=