WTPZ43 KNHC 272036 RRA

TCDEP3



HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  13

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016

200 PM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016



LESTER'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS INCREASED SOME IN ORGANIZATION DURING

THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE CYCLONE'S SMALL CENTRAL DENSE

OVERCAST HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC, WITH A WELL-DEFINED 20 N MI

WIDE EYE EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  A BROKEN BAND IS

ALSO WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LESTER'S

CIRCULATION.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE A CONSENSUS T5.0 FROM BOTH

SATELLITE AGENCIES. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY

ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 90 KT.



LESTER HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE FASTER, AND THE INITIAL MOTION

ESTIMATE IS 270/11.  A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF

LESTER SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A NEARLY DUE-WEST COURSE FOR AT

LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  AFTER ABOUT 72 HOURS, THERE ARE

DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF

LESTER, WHICH ARE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF A

MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE ALSO EXISTS

SOME POTENTIAL FOR BINARY INTERACTION WITH MADELINE LATE IN THE

FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH COULD IMPART A MORE POLEWARD MOTION TO

LESTER. THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LIE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE

OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION REMAINS ON

THE SOUTHERN EDGE. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE

PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD IN THE

DIRECTION OF A CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF, HWRF, GFS, AND UKMET MODELS

AFTER THAT TIME.



A NEARLY UNIFORM EASTERLY FLOW OVER LESTER THROUGHOUT THE

TROPOSPHERE IS FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS, RESULTING IN A LOW-SHEAR=