WTPZ43 KNHC 290853 RRA

TCDEP3



HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  19

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016

200 AM PDT MON AUG 29 2016



LESTER HAS MADE A COMEBACK.  A RAGGED EYE THAT HAD FORMED AROUND THE

TIME OF THE LAST ADVISORY HAS CLEARED OUT AND WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE HURRICANE'S CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS ALSO EXPANDED AND BECOME

MORE AXISYMMETRIC WHILE THE CYCLONE HAS SHED ITS OUTER BANDS.

OVERALL, THE CHARACTERISTICS EXHIBITED BY LESTER ARE THOSE THAT

TYPIFY ANNULAR HURRICANES.  THE DVORAK T-NUMBER FROM TAFB INCREASED

TO T5.5/102 KT AT 0600 UTC, WITH THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES

AROUND T5.4/100 KT.  GIVEN THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY

ESTIMATE IS RAISED TO 100 KT, MAKING LESTER THE FOURTH MAJOR

HURRICANE OF THE 2016 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/13.  A STRONG SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE NORTH OF LESTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE HURRICANE NEARLY

DUE WEST FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  AFTER THAT TIME, A PROBABLE BINARY

INTERACTION WITH MADELINE SHOULD RESULT IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

SHIFT IN THE CYCLONE'S HEADING AS IT APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN

ISLANDS.  EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET AND HWRF MODELS, THE GUIDANCE IS

RELATIVELY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 5 DAYS.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST

IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF

THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.



IN GENERAL, LESTER SHOULD BE EMBEDDED IN A LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR

ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE IT MOVES OVER NEARLY

CONSTANT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 26-27 DEG C. THESE

CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT LESTER COULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT ANNULAR

CHARACTERISTICS FOR SOME TIME, EVEN THOUGH THE LARGE-SCALE=