WTPZ43 KNHC 291440 RRA

TCDEP3



HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  20

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016

800 AM PDT MON AUG 29 2016



LESTER'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE THIS MORNING.

THE CYCLONE'S EYE CONTINUES TO WARM AND AND THE INNER CORE

CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED CONSIDERABLY.  A BLEND OF 1200

UTC SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 105 KT, AND A RECENT ADT

OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATE YIELDS AN INCREASED INITIAL INTENSITY

OF 110 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



LESTER SHOULD REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL

DAYS, WITH ONLY SOME GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE OCEANIC WATER

TEMPERATURE.  THE MAJORITY OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT

THE HURRICANE WILL PEAK WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, THEN

GRADUAL DECREASE.  IT APPEARS THAT THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND

THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES MATCH SIMILAR CRITERIA FOR AN ANNULAR

HURRICANE MANIFESTATION.  IF LESTER ACQUIRES ANNULAR HURRICANE

CHARACTERISTICS, THE CYCLONE COULD REMAIN STRONGER LONGER THAN

REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND WHAT THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE

SUGGESTS.  THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A BIT HIGHER IN THE SHORT

TERM, THEN SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING AND FALLS IN LINE WITH THE IVCN

MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 270/13.  A STRONG, DEEP-LAYER

RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF LESTER SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A CONTINUED

WESTWARD COURSE DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  BEYOND THAT PERIOD, THE

LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE SOME INTERACTION WITH MADELINE TO THE

SOUTHWEST OF LESTER WHICH INDUCES A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH DAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT=