WTPZ43 KNHC 292033 RRA

TCDEP3



HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  21

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016

200 PM PDT MON AUG 29 2016



LESTER CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.  VISIBLE AND ENHANCED BD-CURVE

INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW A SYMMETRIC, THICK, INNER CORE RING CONSISTING

OF CLOUD TOPS OF -70 TO -75C AND AN IMPRESSIVE FANNING OUTFLOW

PATTERN.  A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE

INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTS RAISING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 115

KT, MAKING LESTER A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  A LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD

PERSIST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND THE SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 26C AS THE CYCLONE MOVES

ALONG THE CLIMATOLGICALLY ORIENTED EASTERN PACIFIC SST GRADIENT.

STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE

MAY HAVE ALREADY PEAKED, BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME INTENSITY

FLUCTUATIONS DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  AFTERWARD, THE CYCLONE

SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN, MOST LIKELY CAUSED BY AN INCREASINGLY

MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND A DECREASING OCEANIC HEAT

CONTENT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE HIGHER DUE TO

THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND, AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY

MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.



LESTER'S INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A STEADFAST 270/12.  A

SUBTROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF LESTER SHOULD INFLUENCE A

GENERALLY WESTWARD COURSE DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  THROUGH THE

REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO SOME BINARY INTERACTION WITH

MADELINE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LESTER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST=