WTNT44 KNHC 050257 RRA

TCDAT4



POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016

1100 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2016



HERMINE REMAINS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH ALL OF THE DEEP

CONVECTION LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER.  DEEP CONVECTION

ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED OVER THE NORTHERN AND

NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION THIS EVENING, BUT IT DOES

NOT APPEAR THAT THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.  THE

INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT, WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH

RECENT SFMR WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT.  THE AIRCRAFT HAS ALSO RECENTLY REPORTED A

MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 997 MB.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED

OVERNIGHT, BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT WEAKENING SHOULD

BEGIN BY LATE MONDAY.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS

DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE BY DAY 5, AND THIS IS NOW REFLECTED IN THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST.



HERMINE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE EASTWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY,

BUT THE MOST RECENT FIX FROM THE AIRCRAFT SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTWARD

MOTION MAY BE ENDING.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST

OF NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD CAUSE HERMINE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD LATER

TONIGHT, THEN A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD

CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.  AFTER THAT TIME, THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN

NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL

RIDGE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS

ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS, BUT HAS BEEN

ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BASED ON THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL=