WTNT44 KNHC 300249 RRA

TCDAT4



TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016

1000 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016



SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, THE DEPRESSION'S CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS

IMPROVED SOMEWHAT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLUSTER OF DEEP

CONVECTION WITH TOPS TO -80C HAVING DEVELOPED NEAR AND ALSO EAST

THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER. REPORTS FROM NEARBY SHIPS WAHV, J8NY,

AND C6CL6, ALONG WITH RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE

LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS SLOWLY IMPROVING. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF

1003 MB IS BASED ON A RECENT NOAA DROPSONDE REPORT OF 1005 MB WITH

20 KT OF WIND JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. SINCE NO WINDS OF TROPICAL

STORM FORCE WERE SAMPLED, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT.



SIMILAR TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT, THE CYCLONE HAS MADE A JOG TO THE

WEST DURING THE EARLIER CONVECTIVE HIATUS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE PAST

COUPLE OF DROPSONDE REPORTS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS RESUMED

A LONGER TERM MOTION OF 280/06 KT. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE

PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. OTHER THAN HAVING TO ADJUST THE

FORECAST TRACK SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE TO THE MORE

SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION, THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK REMAINS

UNCHANGED. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY AROUND THE WESTERN

PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN

FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. BY 48 HOURS, THE DEPRESSION IS

EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AHEAD

OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE

SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN GULF MEXICO. THE NEW NHC

TRACK FORECAST LIES BETWEEN A BLEND OF THE GFS-ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND=