WTNT44 KNHC 300854 RRA

TCDAT4



TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016

400 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016



ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE

SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE DEPRESSION'S CIRCULATION, THE SYSTEM IS

STILL BEING AFFECTED BY WESTERLY SHEAR, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER

EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  RECENT OBSERVATIONS

FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND THE UNMANNED NASA GLOBAL

HAWK INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS JUST BELOW TROPICAL

STORM STRENGTH.  THE NOAA AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL

WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF 32 KT, AND BELIEVABLE SFMR

WINDS OF AROUND 30 KT.  A DROPSONDE FROM THE GLOBAL HAWK REPORTED

33 KT SURFACE WINDS, BUT THE MEAN-LAYER WIND OVER THE LOWEST 150 M

SUPPORT WINDS CLOSER TO 30 KT.  A VERY RECENT CENTER DROP FROM THE

UNMANNED AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1003 MB.



THE WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DECREASE

SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, HOWEVER DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IS

EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.  AS A

RESULT OF THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING

IS PREDICTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS IS SUPPORTED

BY THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH DO NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPEN THE SYSTEM

UNTIL IS MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTERACTS WITH AN

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM

THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS

MODEL IVCN.



THE AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED WESTWARD

SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS=