WTNT44 KNHC 302103 RRA

TCDAT4



TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016

400 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016



THE SYSTEM HAS STILL NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE

IMAGERY, WITH LIMITED EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES.  THERE IS AN

APPARENT MID-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION LOCATED SOUTH OF THE

LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORTED BY A

NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 34 KT AND THE HIGHEST

SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS WERE 30 KT, WHICH CONTINUES TO BE USED

FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF INCREASING

UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH.  THE LATEST INTENSITY

GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE, WITH A LITTLE LESS

SHEAR FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION.  THE OFFICIAL

INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN COMPARISON TO THE

PREVIOUS ONE, AND IS A LITTLE BELOW THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.

GIVEN THAT A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM BECOMING A

HURRICANE, AND THE 48-HOUR FORECAST POINT IMPLIES

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST, IT IS PRUDENT TO ISSUE A

HURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO COAST

AT THIS TIME.



FIXES FROM THE NOAA AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS

NORTHWESTWARD, OR 320/4 KT.  THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A

MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED

STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE

TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IN

24-48 HOURS.  THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A

BIT TO THE WEST COMPARED TO THEIR EARLIER RUNS, AS HAS THE

MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS=