WTNT44 KNHC 310852 RRA

TCDAT4



TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016

400 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016



ALTHOUGH CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE TO PULSATE NEAR

AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE, THERE

HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT.  A COUPLE

OF ASCAT PASSES SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY REVEALED PEAK WINDS OF

30 KT, SO THE SYSTEM REMAINS A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS

ADVISORY.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED TO THE NORTHWEST

AND NORTH OF THE CYCLONE, WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND

PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE SHIPS

MODEL INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY

OR SO, WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER WARM WATER.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW

FOR STRENGTHENING, AND THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY

INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED

BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.  THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD

AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.



THE DEPRESSSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVERNIGHT, BUT IS EXPECTED TO

BEGIN A NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD MOTION LATER TODAY.  A DEEPENING

TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE THE

TROPICAL CYCLONE TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD

BY TONIGHT.  ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON

THIS SCENARIO, THE MODEL ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THIS

CYCLE, AND THE NHC FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT

DIRECTION.



THE NEW FORECAST HAS REQUIRED THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM

WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.  THE HURRICANE=