WTNT82 EGRR 110419



  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 11.09.2016



   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E        ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 114.0W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162016



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 11.09.2016    0  13.6N 114.0W     1008            24

    1200UTC 11.09.2016   12  15.3N 116.6W     1007            28

    0000UTC 12.09.2016   24  16.7N 118.5W     1001            37

    1200UTC 12.09.2016   36  17.8N 119.7W      997            41

    0000UTC 13.09.2016   48  18.7N 120.2W      994            46

    1200UTC 13.09.2016   60  19.7N 119.8W      990            51

    0000UTC 14.09.2016   72  20.5N 119.6W      993            47

    1200UTC 14.09.2016   84  20.6N 119.8W     1000            38

    0000UTC 15.09.2016   96  20.3N 120.5W     1004            32

    1200UTC 15.09.2016  108  19.7N 121.7W     1007            28

    0000UTC 16.09.2016  120  18.9N 123.3W     1007            27

    1200UTC 16.09.2016  132  18.5N 125.2W     1008            27

    0000UTC 17.09.2016  144  17.8N 127.0W     1007            25



 TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 14.6N  46.1W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 11.09.2016    0  14.6N  46.1W     1010            26

    1200UTC 11.09.2016   12  16.6N  46.3W     1009            29

    0000UTC 12.09.2016   24  19.5N  48.1W     1008            37

    1200UTC 12.09.2016   36  20.8N  49.9W     1006            37

    0000UTC 13.09.2016   48  22.6N  51.1W     1006            35

    1200UTC 13.09.2016   60  24.5N  52.6W     1007            35

    0000UTC 14.09.2016   72  26.2N  53.6W     1005            40

    1200UTC 14.09.2016   84  29.0N  54.3W      997            51

    0000UTC 15.09.2016   96  31.2N  53.9W      992            50

    1200UTC 15.09.2016  108  34.2N  52.9W      987            54

    0000UTC 16.09.2016  120  37.8N  49.9W      976            62

    1200UTC 16.09.2016  132  42.1N  43.9W      967            65

    0000UTC 17.09.2016  144  47.1N  35.7W      970            58



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  84 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 17.4N  29.1W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 14.09.2016   84  17.4N  29.1W     1012            25

    0000UTC 15.09.2016   96  18.5N  31.2W     1012            26

    1200UTC 15.09.2016  108  19.2N  33.7W     1012            28

    0000UTC 16.09.2016  120  19.5N  36.6W     1012            27

    1200UTC 16.09.2016  132  20.3N  39.2W     1012            27

    0000UTC 17.09.2016  144  20.9N  41.8W     1012            26



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 13.4N 101.1W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 16.09.2016  132  13.8N 102.2W     1002            31

    0000UTC 17.09.2016  144  15.2N 104.3W      997            41



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 13.8N  17.1W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 17.09.2016  144  13.8N  17.1W      999            35





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 110419