WTNT82 EGRR 111619



  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 11.09.2016



        TROPICAL STORM ORLENE     ANALYSED POSITION : 14.9N 116.5W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162016



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 11.09.2016    0  14.9N 116.5W     1004            30

    0000UTC 12.09.2016   12  16.4N 118.2W      999            39

    1200UTC 12.09.2016   24  17.6N 119.2W      993            46

    0000UTC 13.09.2016   36  18.9N 119.5W      988            55

    1200UTC 13.09.2016   48  20.0N 119.3W      985            52

    0000UTC 14.09.2016   60  20.9N 119.2W      988            50

    1200UTC 14.09.2016   72  21.0N 119.3W      993            43

    0000UTC 15.09.2016   84  20.9N 119.8W      998            38

    1200UTC 15.09.2016   96  20.6N 120.9W     1002            33

    0000UTC 16.09.2016  108  20.3N 122.5W     1003            32

    1200UTC 16.09.2016  120  20.0N 124.5W     1005            28

    0000UTC 17.09.2016  132  20.0N 126.3W     1006            27

    1200UTC 17.09.2016  144  20.1N 128.2W     1007            25



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  18 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 20.4N  48.6W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 12.09.2016   24  21.3N  49.9W     1008            39

    0000UTC 13.09.2016   36  21.5N  51.3W     1008            34

    1200UTC 13.09.2016   48  24.1N  52.4W     1008            33

    0000UTC 14.09.2016   60  25.5N  53.7W     1007            37

    1200UTC 14.09.2016   72  28.3N  54.7W     1004            42

    0000UTC 15.09.2016   84  30.7N  54.6W      990            47

    1200UTC 15.09.2016   96  33.8N  54.1W      986            53

    0000UTC 16.09.2016  108  37.2N  51.5W      980            58

    1200UTC 16.09.2016  120  41.3N  45.8W      969            63

    0000UTC 17.09.2016  132  45.6N  37.0W      972            61

    1200UTC 17.09.2016  144  49.5N  26.0W      984            47



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 14.0N 104.2W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 17.09.2016  132  14.0N 104.2W     1002            29

    1200UTC 17.09.2016  144  15.0N 106.7W      998            36





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 111618