WTPZ41 KNHC 110836 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016

200 AM PDT SUN SEP 11 2016



THERE HAS BEEN AN IMPRESSIVE INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE

DEPRESSION'S CLOUD PATTERN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  AN ASCAT PASS

INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED JUST INSIDE WHAT

APPEARS TO BE A FORMATIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO), WHOSE CLOUD

TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY.  A WELL-DEVELOPED

CONVECTIVE BAND ALSO SPIRALS OUTWARD FROM THE CDO, NOW COVERING MUCH

OF THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS

SHOWED PEAK UNCONTAMINATED WINDS OF 32 KT.  GIVEN THIS DATUM, A

SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION OF T2.5 FROM TAFB, AND SOME FURTHER

INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THE TIME OF THE PASS, THE INITIAL

INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 35 KT.



THE BEST ESTIMATE OF ORLENE'S INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/11.

THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AROUND

THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN

MEXICO TODAY. IN 24 TO 48 HOURS, ORLENE'S FORWARD MOTION SHOULD

DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WHEN THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A WEAKNESS IN

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 120W AND 125W, CAUSED BY A SOUTHWARD

EXTENSION OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE UNITED STATES

WEST COAST.  A FURTHER REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD

THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS, AND ORLENE COULD EVEN

COME TO A HALT IN THE FACE OF WEAK STEERING AROUND THIS TIME. THERE

IS WIDESPREAD AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE

WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF NORTH OF ORLENE IN ABOUT 4 DAYS, WHICH=