WTPZ41 KNHC 112033 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016

200 PM PDT SUN SEP 11 2016



VISIBLE, INFRARED, AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT

ORLENE CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED.  THE CYCLONE HAS

WELL-DEFINED CURVED BANDS, AND A RECENT SSMIS IMAGE SHOWED THAT IT

HAS A MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE.  DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE

NOW T3.0/45 KT WHILE THE OBJECTIVE UW-CIMSS ADT IS UP TO T3.5/55 KT.

HOWEVER, ASCAT DATA ONLY SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35-40 KT.  GIVEN

THIS WIDE RANGE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT FOR THIS

ADVISORY.



SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT ORLENE'S CENTER IS A LITTLE BIT

NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES, AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW

310/12 KT.  THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING.

ORLENE SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AND SLOW DOWN

DRASTICALLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHEN IT BECOMES POSITIONED TO

THE WEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, AND SOUTH OF AN AMPLIFYING

TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA.  AFTER 48 HOURS, THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY

RESTRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH OF ORLENE, FORCING IT TOWARD THE WEST WITH

AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

 THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE REPOSITIONING OF ORLENE'S

CENTER, BUT OTHERWISE IT STILL CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TVCX MULTI-MODEL

CONSENSUS.



GIVEN ORLENE'S IMPROVED STRUCTURE, AS WELL AS FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES AND LOW SHEAR, RAPID INTENSIFICATION STILL LOOKS LIKE A

POSSIBILITY.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A 1-IN-3=