WTPZ41 KNHC 121441 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016

800 AM PDT MON SEP 12 2016



SATELLITE IMAGES AND AN EARLIER GMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS SHOW

A RAGGED CLOUD-FILLED EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDS IN THE

EASTERN HALF OF ORLENE'S CIRCULATION.  A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE

AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES YIELD AN INITIAL

INTENSITY OF 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING

IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS BEFORE ORLENE MOVES INTO

THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A MORE STABLE AND DRY NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC

AIR MASS.  CONSEQUENTLY, A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE

AT THAT TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SIDES WITH THE IVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWESTWARD, OR 320/5KT.

THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TONIGHT,

THEN MORE NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY, AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF AN AMPLIFYING

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED

STATES.  BY MID-PERIOD, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BECOME

REESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED

TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.  THIS CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC STEERING

PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH AN ACCELERATION

IN FORWARD MOTION.



THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON AN

EARLIER CIRA AMSU WIND ESTIMATE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  12/1500Z 17.4N 119.3W   80 KT  90 MPH

 12H  13/0000Z 18.1N 119.6W   90 KT 105 MPH

 24H  13/1200Z 18.8N 119.7W   90 KT 105 MPH

 36H  14/0000Z 19.1N 119.8W   85 KT 100 MPH=