WTPZ41 KNHC 122051 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016

200 PM PDT MON SEP 12 2016



ORLENE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN, WITH A REMARKABLE 50 KT

INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.  ORLENE'S EYE HAS

WARMED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND HAS BECOME

MORE DISTINCT AND SYMMETRIC IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.  ADDITIONALLY,

SURROUNDING INNER CORE CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED TO AROUND -70C.  A

SYMMETRIC UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED, CONSISTENT WITH

THE LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A

WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT

12 HOURS OR SO, AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL

INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  AFTERWARD, A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO

COMMENCE AS THE ORLENE MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER

THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS

BASED ON THE IVCN MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM GUIDANCE

BEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.



ORLENE IS MOVING MORE TOWARD THE NORTH NOW, A LITTLE SOONER THAN

MODEL GUIDANCE PREVIOUSLY INDICATED, AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS

ESTIMATED TO BE 350/5 KT.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE OVER  THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN A MID-LEVEL

RIDGE CREATED BY AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF

THE UNITED STATES.  BY MID-PERIOD, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO

BACK WESTWARD, TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED

TROUGH TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD.  AS A RESULT IN THIS CHANGE IN THE

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL STEERING FLOW, ORLENE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE

WEST WITH AN ACCELERATION IN FORWARD MOTION.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST=