WTNT41 KNHC 161440 RRA

TCDAT1



TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016

1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016



JULIA CONTINUES TO FEEL THE IMPACT OF 25 TO 35 KT OF WESTERLY

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AS THE MAIN DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS ABOUT

40 TO 60 N MI EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  VARIOUS SUBJECTIVE AND

OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NEAR 35 KT, AND THAT

REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  IT IS NOTED THAT BUOY 41002 LOCATED

ABOUT 55 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER IS REPORTING WINDS OF LESS

THAN 30 KT, SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT INITIAL INTENSITY IS A LITTLE

GENEROUS.



THERE IS DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  WHILE

JULIA IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN A STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE

NEXT 60 HOURS OR SO, THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE CYCLONE MAY BE LESS THAN FORECAST

YESTERDAY.  AFTER 60 HOURS, ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR

SHOULD DECREASE, AND AT THAT TIME THE CANADIAN AND UKMET MODELS SHOW

RE-INTENSIFICATION.  ON THE OTHER HAND, THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST

JULIA TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN EVEN IN THE MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL

WINDS.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST STAYS WITH THE SCENARIO OF THE

PREVIOUS FORECAST IN CALLING FOR THE SHEAR TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE'S

DEMISE.  HOWEVER, THIS FORECAST IS ON THE LOW EDGE OF THE INTENSITY

GUIDANCE, AND THE CHANCES THAT JULIA WILL SURVIVE AND RE-INTENSIFY

ARE HIGHER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO.



JULIA CONTINUES TO MOVE ERRATICALLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN

INITIAL MOTION OF 105/6.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER

FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO IN WEAK STEERING FLOW.  IN 3-4 DAYS, A=