WTNT41 KNHC 182032 RRA

TCDAT1



TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016

500 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016



JULIA'S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DESPITE THE

LACK OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER.

HOWEVER, SOME TIGHT CURVED BANDING FEATURES CONSISTING OF SHALLOW TO

MODERATE CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN 100 NMI OF THE CENTER

DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, A HINT THAT THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS

BEGINNING TO INCREASE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT BASED ON

ON A TAFB INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5/25 KT, AND A 1535Z ASCAT PASS

THAT SHOWED SOME SURFACE WINDS NEAR 25 KT JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER.



JULIA IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 330/06 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST

TO SLOW DOWN AND GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH

LATER TONIGHT. A NORTHWARD MOTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST, AHEAD

OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE

WESTERN CAROLINAS, UNTIL JULIA MOVES NEAR OR JUST ONSHORE THE THE

SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON TUESDAY. AFTER THAT TIME,

IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER OR NOT A WEAKENING JULIA WILL LIFT OUT TO

THE NORTHEAST AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, OR DRIFT

SOUTHWESTWARD AS A REMNANT LOW. REGARDLESS OF THE STATUS OF JULIA BY

72 HOURS, THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT

BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THAT TIME OR THEREAFTER DUE TO STRONG

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK

FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WHICH IS A COMPROMISE

OF THE VARIOUS GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS.



JULIA HAS A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND=