WTNT42 KNHC 210835 RRA

TCDAT2



TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  28

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016

500 AM AST WED SEP 21 2016



KARL'S STRUCTURE IS VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THIS MORNING.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVED WESTWARD

FAR AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION, AND CURRENTLY IT IS HARD TO SAY IF

KARL POSSESS A CLOSED CIRCULATION OR NOT. ASSUMING THAT IT STILL

DOES, THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED GENEROUSLY AT 30 KT, SINCE THE

CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF

EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES WILL REVEAL THAT THE CYCLONE HAS

DEGENERATED INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.



GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TOTALLY FAILED SO FAR IN FORECASTING THE

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SURROUNDING KARL. THE UPPER-LOW NEAR KARL WHICH

UNANIMOUSLY ALL MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING TO WEAKEN IS STILL

STRONG AND PRODUCING SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. GIVEN SUCH A RESILIENT

SHEAR PATTERN, ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. HOWEVER,

MOST OF THE MODELS ARE STILL PREDICTING A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR

INTENSIFICATION, AND ON THIS BASIS AS WELL AS CONTINUITY, THE NHC

FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEYOND 36 HOURS WHILE KARL

MOVES AWAY FROM THE HOSTILE TROPICS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST

PERIOD, KARL SHOULD BE RAPIDLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS

WHILE IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS ALSO HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, GIVING THAT WE HAVE

BEEN FOLLOWING THE LOW-CLOUD SWIRL DEFINING THE ALLEGED CENTER. THE

BEST ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT. KARL IS

APPROACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND THIS=