WTNT42 KNHC 211443 RRA

TCDAT2



TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  29

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016

ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

1100 AM AST WED SEP 21 2016



A RESEARCH FLIGHT BY THE NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT EARLIER THIS MORNING HAD

A DIFFICULT TIME CLOSING OFF A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION.

HOWEVER, WE ARE ABLE TO TRACK WHAT LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE CENTER

ON EARLY-MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  BASED ON THE LATEST

SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE P3 DATA, IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE CENTER

HAS WOBBLED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND SLOWED DOWN A BIT.  HOWEVER,

THE LONGER-TERM 12-HOUR MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD,

OR 295/8 KT.  MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED WELL TO

THE EAST OF THE CENTER, BUT NEW CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY BEEN

DEVELOPING JUST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY

IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON EARLIER REPORTS FROM THE NOAA P3 AND A

1254 UTC ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS.



KARL REMAINS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL

HIGH.  HOWEVER, THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD

LATER TODAY WHEN IT BEGINS TO MOVE BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A MID- TO

UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST.  KARL SHOULD THEN

TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FROM 48

HOURS AND BEYOND ONCE IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE

WESTERLIES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT

ON THIS SCENARIO, AND THE MAIN DIFFERENCES APPEAR TOWARD THE END OF

THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN THE ECMWF REMAINS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE

OTHER MODELS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO A=