WTNT42 KNHC 212043 RRA

TCDAT2



TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  30

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016

ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

500 PM AST WED SEP 21 2016



THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF KARL APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED TOWARD THE

NORTHWEST WITH A MOTION OF 305/10 KT BASED ON GOES-EAST VISIBLE

IMAGERY, RECENTLY TUCKING UNDERNEATH THE CIRRUS CANOPY OF DEVELOPING

CONVECTION.  THOUGH STRONG AT THE MOMENT, THE DEEP CONVECTION

CONTINUES TO BE INCONSISTENT, MAKING THE INTENSITY DETERMINATION A

BIT MUDDLED.  PROXIMITY TO NOAA BUOY 41044 INDICATES THE CIRCULATION

APPEARS CLOSED WITH WINDS BACKING FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST

DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, BUT THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT

PRESSURE FALLS.  ASCAT PASSES FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED A BROAD

AREA OF 30-KT WINDS ABOUT 150 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE

CENTER.  AS SUCH, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KTS AT THIS

TIME.



KARL HAS TURNED TOWARD NORTHWEST AS IT IS BEING FUNNELED BETWEEN THE

SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE UPPER- TO

MID-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THIS NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL KARL TURNS

NORTH AND RAPIDLY ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD, BECOMING EMBEDDED IN

MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE

TRACK GUIDANCE, WHICH REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48

HOURS.   HOWEVER, DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR TOWARD THE END OF THE

FORECAST PERIOD AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SLOWER. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT

HEDGES TOWARD THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION.  THIS IS ALSO IN CLOSE=