WTNT42 KNHC 222051 RRA

TCDAT2



TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  34

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016

ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

500 PM AST THU SEP 22 2016



AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAVE BEEN

FLYING IN KARL, AND THE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS

RE-INTENSIFIED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM.  THE MAXIMUM 850-MB

FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SO FAR IS 45 KT, WHICH EQUATES TO AN INTENSITY OF

ABOUT 35 KT.  THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SFMR OBSERVATIONS.  IN

ADDITION, DROPSONDE DATA SUGGEST LOWERING THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DOWN

TO 1005 MB. COMBINED WITH THE AIRCRAFT DATA, SCATTEROMETER WINDS

WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS INDICATE THAT TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS

EXTEND 120 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.



KARL HAS CONTINUED ITS NORTHWESTWARD PROGRESSION AT 305 DEGREES

WITH A SPEED OF 14 KNOTS.  THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AROUND THIS SYSTEM

FEATURES A MID-LEVEL HIGH OFF TO ITS NORTHEAST WHILE A MID-LEVEL

LOW IS POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO.  KARL IS FORECAST TO

MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ANTICYCLONE WHICH WILL MAKE

IT TURN MORE NORTHWARD BY 36 HOURS BEFORE ACCELERATING

NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY 48 HOURS.  BASED

ON THE ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION PROVIDED BY THE AIRCRAFT,

THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT LEFT OF THE POSITIONS INDICATED

IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  AS A RESULT, THE UPDATED OFFICIAL

FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS, LYING

A BIT CLOSER TO THE GFS/GEFS MEAN CLUSTERING WHILE GIVING SOME

CREDIT TO THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  LATER IN THE PERIOD, THE=