WTNT82 EGRR 210419



  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 21.09.2016



        TROPICAL STORM KARL       ANALYSED POSITION : 19.7N  55.8W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122016



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 21.09.2016    0  19.7N  55.8W     1008            26

    1200UTC 21.09.2016   12  20.2N  56.5W     1008            30

    0000UTC 22.09.2016   24  22.5N  58.3W     1008            33

    1200UTC 22.09.2016   36  24.3N  60.7W     1006            37

    0000UTC 23.09.2016   48  26.0N  62.8W     1002            35

    1200UTC 23.09.2016   60  27.8N  64.3W      999            38

    0000UTC 24.09.2016   72  30.0N  64.2W      994            45

    1200UTC 24.09.2016   84  32.1N  62.6W      987            51

    0000UTC 25.09.2016   96  34.5N  58.2W      973            63

    1200UTC 25.09.2016  108  38.4N  50.6W      960            73

    0000UTC 26.09.2016  120  44.1N  39.6W      980            60

    1200UTC 26.09.2016  132              CEASED TRACKING



        TROPICAL STORM LISA       ANALYSED POSITION : 16.8N  31.4W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132016



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 21.09.2016    0  16.8N  31.4W     1005            35

    1200UTC 21.09.2016   12  17.6N  32.8W     1004            35

    0000UTC 22.09.2016   24  18.6N  34.2W     1006            36

    1200UTC 22.09.2016   36  19.4N  35.4W     1008            33

    0000UTC 23.09.2016   48  20.5N  36.8W     1010            33

    1200UTC 23.09.2016   60  21.7N  38.2W     1012            31

    0000UTC 24.09.2016   72  22.5N  39.8W     1013            32

    1200UTC 24.09.2016   84  23.2N  41.9W     1015            28

    0000UTC 25.09.2016   96  24.7N  44.0W     1015            26

    1200UTC 25.09.2016  108  27.1N  45.2W     1014            26

    0000UTC 26.09.2016  120              CEASED TRACKING



   TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAINE      ANALYSED POSITION : 27.8N 116.2W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172016



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 21.09.2016    0  27.8N 116.2W     1005            24

    1200UTC 21.09.2016   12              CEASED TRACKING



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  24 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 12.4N 136.5W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 22.09.2016   24  12.4N 136.5W     1008            20

    1200UTC 22.09.2016   36  12.8N 138.0W     1008            23

    0000UTC 23.09.2016   48  12.5N 139.5W     1008            24

    1200UTC 23.09.2016   60  12.4N 140.6W     1007            25

    0000UTC 24.09.2016   72  12.2N 142.0W     1007            25

    1200UTC 24.09.2016   84  12.1N 143.3W     1008            22

    0000UTC 25.09.2016   96  12.2N 144.4W     1007            25

    1200UTC 25.09.2016  108  12.3N 145.5W     1008            25

    0000UTC 26.09.2016  120  12.5N 147.2W     1006            27

    1200UTC 26.09.2016  132  12.6N 149.3W     1005            28

    0000UTC 27.09.2016  144  13.3N 150.7W     1004            29



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  84 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 14.4N 121.3W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 24.09.2016   84  14.4N 121.3W     1006            28

    0000UTC 25.09.2016   96  15.2N 121.6W     1005            28

    1200UTC 25.09.2016  108  16.3N 122.5W     1004            29

    0000UTC 26.09.2016  120  16.5N 122.8W     1001            36

    1200UTC 26.09.2016  132  17.3N 122.6W     1001            30

    0000UTC 27.09.2016  144  17.9N 122.3W     1001            33



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 12.9N 130.9W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 26.09.2016  120  12.9N 130.9W     1008            27

    1200UTC 26.09.2016  132  13.7N 130.1W     1006            27

    0000UTC 27.09.2016  144  14.4N 129.2W     1005            28





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 210418