WTPZ42 KNHC 180837 RRA

TCDEP2



TROPICAL STORM PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016

300 AM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016



THE SYSTEM'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS VERY QUICKLY EXHIBITED INCREASED

ORGANIZATION.  A RELATIVELY LONG BAND WITH VERY COLD-TOPPED

CONVECTION WRAPS IN TOWARD THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE LOW-LEVEL

CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN END OF THIS BAND,

SUGGESTING THAT SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR PERSISTS.  A DVORAK

CLASSIFICATION OF T2.5 FROM SAB AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT VALUE OF

2.8 ARE USED TO RAISE THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE TO 35 KT.



THE CENTER LOCATION AND HENCE THE INITIAL MOTION ARE MORE UNCERTAIN

THAN NORMAL, ESPECIALLY WITH NO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES AND AFTER A

CENTER REFORMATION YESTERDAY.  THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 310/12.  PAINE

SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN

PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE

NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO

THEN TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD WHEN IT ENCOUNTERS A

BREAK IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A CUT-OFF LOW RETROGRADING OFFSHORE THE

CALIFORNIA COAST.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE

RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER 12 HOURS, FOLLOWING THE MULTI-

MODEL CONSENSUS.



THE SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REACH A RELATIVE

MINIMUM TODAY WHILE PAINE IS STILL MOVING OVER WARM WATERS. THIS

SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO INTENSIFY AT NEAR A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE

OF ONE T-NUMBER PER DAY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD ABRUPTLY INCREASE BY LATE MONDAY IN

ASSOCIATION WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW AROUND THE TIME PAINE CROSSES THE=