WTPZ42 KNHC 192045 RRA

TCDEP2



HURRICANE PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016

200 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2016



VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED 20 NM DIAMETER EYE

APPEARING IN PAINE'S CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  INFRARED IMAGERY DOES

INDICATE QUITE VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS, BUT WITH A SOMEWHAT

ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ONLY OBSERVED IN

THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER INITIAL INTENSITY OF

80 KT IS A BLEND OF A 77 KT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND

A 90 KT VALUE FROM ADT.



GIVEN THAT PAINE IS NOW TRAVERSING SUB-26C WATERS WHILE EXPERIENCING

MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR, ONE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT HAS

REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY.  BUT GIVEN THIS SOMEWHAT SURPRISING

HURRICANE, THIS IS NOT GUARANTEED.  AS PAINE TURNS TOWARD THE NORTH

OR NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, IT WILL MOVE OVER EVEN

COLDER SSTS, THROUGH A STABLE ATMOSPHERE, AND INTO HIGHER SHEAR.

THUS THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A RAPID WEAKENING - 35 KT IN

24 HOURS - WITH PAINE BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS, OR

SOONER. THIS FORECAST IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED

MEMBERS OF THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS TECHNIQUE, AND IS NEARLY THE

SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, DESPITE THE HIGHER INITIAL

INTENSITY.



PAINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 14 KT, STEERED BETWEEN A

DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF-LOW TO

ITS NORTHWEST.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD RECURVE TO THE NORTH IN

ABOUT A DAY AND THEN DECELERATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL

STEERING FLOW NEAR NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST=