WTNT45 KNHC 050245 RRA

TCDAT5



TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016

1100 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2016



NICOLE HAS DEVELOPED A COMMA-SHAPED CLOUD PATTERN THIS EVENING, WITH

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE END OF

A LONG CURVED BAND AND THE END OF AN ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT.  DVORAK

CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T3.0 FROM BOTH SATELLITE AGENCIES, AND THUS THE

INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT.



ALTHOUGH OVER WATERS AROUND 29 DEG C DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS,

NICOLE IS FORECAST TO BE AFFECTED BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY TO

NORTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE MATTHEW TO

ITS EAST. WHILE THE SHEAR MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INDUCE MUCH

WEAKENING, IT VERY LIKELY WOULD PREVENT NICOLE FROM INTENSIFYING.

BY ABOUT 72 HOURS, THE NORTHERLY SHEAR SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE, AND

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NICOLE WOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY

THAT TIME OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS

IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND IS CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL

MODEL OUTPUT THAT SHOWS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGH 36 HOURS AND

THEN WEAKENING. NICOLE IS SHOWN TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS

THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE ECMWF

SOLUTION, WHICH SHOWS THIS POSSIBILITY.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/05.  NICOLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND A MID-LEVEL HIGH

LOCATED EAST OF BERMUDA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE, A

MID-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST

IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NICOLE, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE

THE CYCLONE TO TURN EASTWARD OR EVEN SOUTHEASTWARD FROM 72-96=