WTNT45 KNHC 070241 RRA

TCDAT5



HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016

1100 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016



NICOLE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE DAY, WITH A PINHOLE EYE

APPARENT IN SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  ALTHOUGH THE EYE HAS

RECENTLY BECOME OBSCURED, DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN

INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE

SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR NEAR NICOLE SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT

OF INCREASINGLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS.  THUS NICOLE

IS PROBABLY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY, AND SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST

FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT

COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION BY DAYS 4 OR 5,

AND SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS SHOWN AROUND THAT TIME.  THE NEW

INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, SLIGHTLY ABOVE

THE MODEL CONSENSUS.



NICOLE HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE

HURRICANE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD BY TOMORROW

AFTERNOON DUE TO STEERING FROM THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL

TROUGH.  THEREAFTER, NICOLE COULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE

SOUTHWEST, WEST, AND NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AROUND A

RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.  THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT IN

THE GUIDANCE THAN YESTERDAY, ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT OF AN

OUTLIER SOLUTION TO THE EAST.  SINCE A STRONGER SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY

RESPOND MORE TO THE DEEP-LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW, THE NEW NHC TRACK IS

SHIFTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN A COUPLE OF

DAYS, BUT ENDS UP CLOSE TO THE LAST NHC ADVISORY BY DAY 5.=