WTNT45 KNHC 080839 RRA

TCDAT5



TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016

500 AM AST SAT OCT 08 2016



NICOLE'S STRUCTURE HAS CHANGED DRAMATICALLY JUST WITHIN THE PAST

SIX HOURS DUE TO ABOUT 45 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR.  THE DEEP

CONVECTION IS NOW ORIENTED LINEARLY FROM EAST TO WEST AND IS

DISPLACED MORE THAN 100 N MI TO THE SOUTH OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL

CENTER.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS HAVE DROPPED TO 3.0 FROM

TAFB, SAB, AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT, AND NICOLE'S INITIAL INTENSITY IS

LOWERED TO 45 KT.



DEEP-LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH NICOLE SOUTHWARD, AND

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 190/6 KT.  THE WINDS ON THE

WEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL LOW SHOULD CONTINUE FORCING NICOLE

GENERALLY SOUTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS UNTIL THESE TWO

SYSTEMS BECOME COLLOCATED WITH ONE ANOTHER.  AFTER 36 HOURS, NICOLE

IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BACK TOWARD THE NORTH, AHEAD OF HURRICANE

MATTHEW'S REMNANT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  THERE ARE SOME

DIFFERENCES AMONG THE TRACK MODELS ASSOCIATED WITH EXACTLY HOW

THE INTERACTION BETWEEN NICOLE AND MATTHEW WILL PLAY OUT.  THE

NOTABLE OUTLIER IS THE ECMWF MODEL, WHICH SWINGS NICOLE

NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF MATTHEW

AFTER 48 HOURS.  IN DEFERENCE TO THIS MODEL, THE NEW NHC TRACK

FORECAST IS A LITTLE WEST AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST,

AND IT LIES VERY CLOSE TO AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.



THE VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING NICOLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH FOR

SEVERAL MORE DAYS, POSSIBLY NOT DROPPING BELOW 20 KT UNTIL AFTER 72

HOURS.  STILL, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 29 AND=