WTNT45 KNHC 081438 RRA

TCDAT5



TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016

1100 AM AST SAT OCT 08 2016



NICOLE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS FURTHER DETERIORATED THIS MORNING.  THE

LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN EXPOSED, WITH GENERALLY ONLY SHALLOW

CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE'S

CIRCULATION.  A NEW BURST OF DEEPER CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED

SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS, HOWEVER. DVORAK

FINAL-T NUMBERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE, AND A BLEND OF THOSE DATA AND

CI-NUMBERS SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE TO 35 KT.



NICOLE IS MOVING JUST WEST OF DUE SOUTH OR 190/06.  A BLOCKING HIGH

NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH IT SOUTHWARD FOR ABOUT

24 HOURS. NICOLE SHOULD THEN REVERSE ITS HEADING AND TURN NORTH-

NORTHWESTWARD, WHEN THE MID-LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS TO ITS NORTHEAST.  A

POTENTIAL COMPLICATION TO THE TRACK FORECAST IS THE DEGREE TO WHICH

NICOLE INTERACTS WITH MATTHEW OR ITS REMNANTS, BEGINNING IN 2 TO 3

DAYS THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE ECMWF

SHOWS A STRONGER BINARY INTERACTION AND DRAWS NICOLE MUCH FARTHER

WEST THAN THE GFS AFTER 72 HOURS, AND THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS

BY 96 HOURS BECOME EXTREME. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY CONTINUES

TO CLOSELY FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS,

THOUGH SLIGHTLY MORE WEIGHT HAS BEEN PLACED ON THE GFS-BASED

GUIDANCE SINCE A SIZABLE NUMBER OF ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE EAST

OF ITS DETERMINISTIC RUN. ADMITTEDLY, THE FORECAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5

ARE OF LOW CONFIDENCE.



THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE SO STRONG IN THE SHORT TERM THAT ONE=