WTNT45 KNHC 100243 RRA

TCDAT5



TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016

1100 PM AST SUN OCT 09 2016



DEPP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NICOLE HAS DECREASED SINCE THE LAST

ADVISORY, WITH THE PRIMARY CONVECTION NOW CONFINED TO AN AREA SOUTH

OF THE CENTER.  IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS IS DUE TO THE NORMAL

DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM, ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR SEEN NEAR THE

CENTER IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, OR THE RESULT OF COOLING SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES UNDER THE STATIONARY STORM.  SATELLITE INTENSITY

ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 55 KT, WHILE THE LATEST SATELLITE

CONSENSUS ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS IS 51 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE

INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.



NICOLE IS NOW DRIFTING NORTHWARD, AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE

FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS A BLOCKING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH

OF THE CYCLONE WEAKENS.  A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER

HURRICANE MATTHEW IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF NICOLE, WITH A SECOND

RIDGE PASSING NORTH OF THE STORM AFTER 24 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE

A NORTHWESTWARD TURN, AND THE GUIDANCE DURING THIS STAGE OF THE

FORECAST HAS SHIFTED LEFT SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  AFTER 72

HOURS, A NEW TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE UNITED STATES SHOULD

CAUSE NICOLE TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES.  THE NEW

FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT BETWEEN 24-72 HOURS, BUT STILL

LIES TO THE EAST OF THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.  AFTER 72 HOURS,

THE TRACK LIES A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.



A COMBINATION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED DRY AIR, POSSIBLE COOLER

WATERS, AND CONTINUING STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT=